Investing in Indian Real Estate
In the recent few months, we are seeing a stunning growth in real estate. Fuelled by over-optimism and high economic growth, a lot of even shabby properties are quoting a few crores now, and the prices have almost tripled in many sectors in the last couple of years. While real estate India needs more development, I feel that there is a lot of "irrational exuberance" (a euphemism for dumbness) in the market that keeps appreciating a small portion of the market to stratospheric heights. The situation is now dangerous as this could affect all those who mortgaged enormous sums to buy those high pricey houses, affect those banks that might get loaded with NPAs if there is a bubble burst and affect the country in general if there is a huge collapse in this sector. RBI is seriously concerned and has started to discourage banks in giving housing loans.
An important thing about investing in housing and real estate India is that it has to be only a long term investment. If the investment horizon is less than 5 to 10 years, it is counted as speculation and becomes a dangerous business. Unlike stocks or gold, houses are illiquid and cannot be disposed at will and taxes and transaction costs can easily build up to kill any short term gains. And being a heavily leveraged business (people take upto 90% as loans), it gives no scope for error. Also, given the legendary speed of Indian court system and confusing property laws, investors need to do enormous homework before buying houses.
Here we will try to discuss a few common myths:
- India has a shortage of land, given its enormous population, and land prices everywhere would always head north.
- Capital appreciation will be at least GDP growth + inflation.
- Regardless of the appreciation in the last few years, house prices will always go up.
- Cash flow from rental is immaterial for buying a house.
Contrary, to popular assumptions India is never short of land for its people. India uses a very small percentage of the land for residential and commercial purposes and there is huge amount of wasteland many times more than all of the residential and commercial properties combined. India has a land surface of nearly 800 million acres of which at least 150 million acres (63 million hectares) are considered waste land. Even if we could utilize 20% of this space, we could build a 5000sq ft bungalow for every single Indian family and don't even need high rises and no land shortage whatsoever! Thus, the fundamental myth that land is limited and in shortage is busted. But, what is a fact is that majority of the land has to be developed. We need four things - infrastructure, strong capital market, industrialization and job creation in the undeveloped waste lands and rural areas and better technology. This is where the current developments & economical growth matter.
One major development is the SEZ (Special Economic Zone). While there are major controversies regarding whether it will lead to a major revenue loss or will lead to greater exports, there is no doubt that this will at least be massive real estate India development in those areas. A lot of them are far away from the major cities and use a portion of the wasteland and agricultural lands (India has nearly 69% of lands in agriculture, the highest for any major nation and could be reduced by a couple of percentage). The SEZs also bring infrastructure & employment in the region and could lead to greater shifting of population from the super-costly cities. Chennai and Mumbai are going to have huge SEZs far away from the main cities and places like Navi Mumbai-Maha Mumbai will compete with Mumbai just like how Noida-Gurgon are doing for Delhi. In the next twenty years thousands of such zones from wastelands will lead to an overall deflating of Indian property prices & better utilization of Indian land surface.
Second is the economic and tech development. A decade ago Bangalore and Pune were still sleepy pensioner cities and Chennai was a conservative southern city and Hyderabad was undeveloped and don't find Gurgoan or Noida on the India map. Economic development has changed everything and we have got a dozen more economic centers now than a decade ago. This process will be accelerated now even more. IT companies are trying to move towards Tier-II and Tier-III cities, organized retail is trying to push into more of suburban culture and Infrastructural growth would connect these remote regions with economic powerhouses. The party has just started and we are going to have dozens of new industries taking over various parts of the country. In another decade, it should not be surprising if we have a hundred more economic centers and together they will average the property price (high priced city properties will come down and the low price sub-urban & Tier-II cities will go up).
Summary: India has no land shortage and there is no guarantee that every property in India will go up in price in the next decade. The new developments could cause the averaging out of high-priced top cities and low priced suburban and smaller cities.